The Vista’s End

It’s quite possible that the time is coming when we’ll all get subsistence checks from the gov’t.

The radical notion that governments should hand out free money to everyone – rich and poor, those who work and those who don’t – is slowly but surely gaining ground in Europe. Yes, you read that right: a guaranteed monthly living allowance, no strings attached.

[…]

Called “universal income” by some, “universal basic income” or just “basic income” by others, the idea has been floated in various guises since at least the mid-19th century. After decades on the fringes of intellectual debate, it became more mainstream in 2016, with Switzerland holding a referendum – and overwhelmingly rejecting – a proposed basic income of around $2,500 per month.

[…]

WHY THE MOUNTING INTEREST?

In a word, robots. With automated systems and machines increasingly replacing human workers…

Charles Murray is going around saying the same thing. If you follow the link it will take you to the 33 minute mark of a video featuring Charles Murray on Conversations with Bill Kristol.[1] If you’re interested, he has a whole book (which I have not read) on the subject called In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State. Call me be a rubic Flyover American, but Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds like welfare to me. Automation (robots) is a red herring, though. UBI is just an incarnation of a sluggard’s fantasy to eat but not work.

Now we command you, brothers, in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, that you keep away from any brother who is walking in idleness and not in accord with the tradition that you received from us. For you yourselves know how you ought to imitate us, because we were not idle when we were with you, nor did we eat anyone’s bread without paying for it, but with toil and labor we worked night and day, that we might not be a burden to any of you. It was not because we do not have that right, but to give you in ourselves an example to imitate. 10 For even when we were with you, we would give you this command: If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat. 11 For we hear that some among you walk in idleness, not busy at work, but busybodies. 12 Now such persons we command and encourage in the Lord Jesus Christ to do their work quietly and to earn their own living.

UBI is a social science disaster in the making, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t coming at us. Then the question will be how to respond to it. Fighting it won’t be in our hands, and will be a waste of time due to its popularity. So perhaps we fathers and husbands ought to start thinking now about how to reform such chaos into a benefit.

My theory is that a UBI would, fundamentally, individuate us further; wives from husbands, children from parents, etc. If we understand that, then we can understand why conservatives/libertarians who oppose welfare on a segregated basis (age, income, handicap, etc.) could be won-over by a comprehensive form of welfare. That means that the way for the average man to fight this is to live and teach cooperation of family members (and perhaps friends) under his leadership. The family which can pool each constituent’s UBI will win.

Until recent human history this was common practice: The family produced together and therefore prospered together, or didn’t. The wealthy still practice it even though children living at home and sharing their profits with the whole family  is anathema to the “American Way of Life”. The “go west young man” attitude of Americans in a land of seemingly endless vistas taught us to ignore this wisdom. Well, we found the vista’s end. We can either return to the ancient wisdom, or spiral into further hellishness of poverty, OoW childbirth, abortion, and disease.

Perhaps such a return seems improbable because of social pressures for kids to move out, and the selfish motivations of the human hearts within those kids. You ought to prepare yourself for that, but I don’t believe it’s hopeless. For one thing we can point to those wealthy families who practice this. We can also point to stories in the entertainment media which, although often the enemies of capable parents, are ultimately servants of eternal story arcs and when they forget themselves, portray family cooperation under a head in a positive light. If only there was a name for such an arrangement…

[1] It’s possible that the name Bill Kristol might send some of my readers right over the edge of reason. (The chances I take!) Those of you who manage to keep yourself righted could do worse than to watch or listen to BK’s Conversations. I often don’t agree with the pundits, but it is an excellent chance to figure out what I think on matters. For example: If you watch the whole video you can hear Murray lament American men’s performance, but never suggest that women have a role to play. For the reading inclined there is a transcript.

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25 thoughts on “The Vista’s End

  1. It’s called Social Security, and include the Disability for the original one.
    The combination unemployment and welfare and SNAP benefits is UBI, but messy.
    It used to be the church that helped the poor, and even in the depression we built bridges, dams, and other things employing men so they could provide for their families.
    Now the millenial degreed drones are looking for something.

  2. @Neguy

    So many good social science insights are attributed to Murray, yet he puts forward this foolishness. I’m tempted to read his book so that I might understand what I’m missing. I think, though, that I’m not missing much.

    @tz

    It’s called Social Security, and include the Disability for the original one.
    The combination unemployment and welfare and SNAP benefits is UBI, but messy.

    No, it’s worse. Those things erode the satisfaction and privilege of being a provider. UBI attempts to obliterate it.

    Every big city has an MLK Blvd., and the communities through which MLK Blvd. runs are always impoverished, derelict, dirty, and crime-ridden. UBI will turn every street outside gated communities into MLK Boulevards.

    I don’t know whether or not I exaggerate.

  3. Upon cursory consideration it appears to me that (an efficiently run) UBI would have no economic effect whatsoever–making all the ridiculous economists assumptions of efficiency. If we all are guaranteed the same $ from the gov’t, doesn’t that net effect change nothing? UBI obviously cannot *generate* value, so if it does anything it must redistribute value. but from who? the rich people presumably also get a UBI check, so there is no redistribution occurring.

    Maybe I misunderstand how it’s supposed to work… Is it only you get the UBI if you are poor?

    (of course, if the govt wrote a $1k check to every human every month, in the real world there would be effects, as businesses would adapt their prices at different rates, and people would change their spending habits because of the perceived change in income, event hough their relative purchasing power had not changed, but, dependent on the rationality of the agents involved there *should* be no effect…)

  4. Actually, it is doomed to failure. If the government gives you 20 dollars, in a very brief period of time that 20 dollars will only be worth 10 dollars. It will never be enough for subsistence. Economic rules of life say you can’t have something for nothing.

  5. Rich people would get far less than they are charged djz.

    I do wonder how we could adapt to a society where robots do a lot of the grunt work. I am not sure that utopia is as near as some claim, but it makes for interesting thoughts. Having a bunch of people unable to do anything of value is a recipe for trouble.

    I doubt we will ever hit that for a sustained time since God’s Word says a man must work to eat, but I wonder if that work could take a much different form. How many of us have had to hunt or grow our own food lately?

  6. @djz

    Maybe I misunderstand how it’s supposed to work… Is it only you get the UBI if you are poor?

    Here’s what Murray’s says (from the transcript):

    Once you have $31,000 in earned income, you’ll pay $50 or some very minor clawback (CC: clawback means the government rescinds benefit) and that will increase as your income rises. I’m really saying to somebody who’s gotten up to $30,000 of earned income, okay, you’ve now got a net of $40,000. You really want to quit working and go back to $10,000? I’m luring them into work until they can’t quit.

    Short answer: The rich pay for it. The slightly longer answer is that the owners of robots and other capital-increasing automations pay for it. Senecagriggs says you can’t get something from nothing and that’s true, but you can get more capital from less.

    In my opinion, all this misses the point. I am willing to accept Murray’s thesis that that a UBI is less expensive than the current fraud and debacle that is welfare. The truth is that welfare payments now are really pretty low, and it’s something of a part time job to scam bureaucrats into giving you a bit more. It takes work.

    If people are willing to work to avoid work for a very little income, what amount of work should we expect of those while they receive a straight salary? It’s such a bad idea. Murray acts like we (gov’t and citizens) will turn to the wastrels and say, “Too bad, you got your money”. Bullshit. That is a situation ripe for political grandstanding…and once we’ve gotten over the threshold of the idea of a UBI, it will only ever increase.

  7. By the way: You should check out the rest of the segment on UBI to hear what he says about the mothers and fathers of OoW babies. It’s distilled and pure conservative bias against men.

  8. In the UK we have a benefit for the in-work low paid called tax credits. Because our tax system is very disjointed, tax credits do not stop before a person starts paying income tax. We also have another tax on income called ‘National Insurance Contributions’ The rate of clawback on Tax Credits is 39.5%. The rate of NICs is 12% and the basic rate of income tax is 20%. For both of these there is a threshold rate of income above which one pays at basic rate until one reaches the higher income threshold. The rules for Tax credits are much more complex and while for the highest income members of society the rate will never exceed 47%, for those who are at lower earned income levels, the marginal rate of taxation and loss of taxcredits works out at 71.5%.

    The theory might well be neater, but in practice it is politicians, each with their own axe to grind who make the rules and pass the laws.

  9. Part of this scenario is, I believe, that with increasing automation there are fewer and fewer jobs. So more and not people will be like factory workers laid off because the plant was automated. Except when everything is automated where can they go to get a new job? I think there could be a big revival of artisanal crafts and art. Granted that’s probably not likely since morals are in decay.

  10. I also realized that to the extent that money is only valuable in proportion to your % of the total quantity of money; the UBI would be inherently redistributive even without clawbacks.

    rephrased:
    If I have $10k net worth and you have $10 net worth, giving each of us $10 drastically changes the % of the pie which we each own. Thus, to the extent that the *size of your slice* is the important thing, the UBI is redistributing percentages from high to low, even without rules about who gets how much based on what income etc…

  11. Automation will lead to
    Ubi
    OR
    Genocide
    OR
    Some combination of the two

    People with pull and money are dead set on replacing workers, most folks are not smart enough to compete in a knowledge based economy or skilled enough to be artists, crafstemen etc so the end result is pretty clear,

  12. I have enjoyed reading through these conversations. Bill Kristol is not a go to political commentator for me so yea, I was held back by that. However, I’ll change my impression in the following way.

    He rises to the level, and to an extent adjusts politely to the bent of the guest he is interviewing. He gets sharpened by other iron IOW’s. But still its the guest that makes these conversations interesting. His talks with the pundits that he frequently yaks with on TV are not so good, nothing new to be found in reading Gingrich and Kristol for instance.

    One of the many dangers of the UBI is the seemingly thoughtful rationale laid out by Murray. He covers versions of cause and effect that close off certain big objections and describes an idealized humanity in terms of stimulus and reaction. Dangerous in its tidy seduction because unlike an amoeba and a hot needle, or the other apt comparison, unlike The Game of Life, people don’t move away predictably from the needle, nor do they -turn left on Merchant Street and begin new management job- because the game board spinner landed on that instruction. Unfortunately the Game of Life type assumptions about human behavior is what buttresses the mind of the left. It shocks me to read such a thing from Murray.

  13. @Empath

    He rises to the level, and to an extent adjusts politely to the bent of the guest he is interviewing. He gets sharpened by other iron IOW’s. But still its the guest that makes these conversations interesting.

    I agree. Kristol is an excellent interviewer for just the reasons you say. My only complaint is that Kristol’s speech is very slushy. He has no tone, poor enunciation, and his cadence of speech is something like Christopher Walken: You simply don’t know if he as ended his sentence or not.

    The ones with Larry Summers are funny at first, but then irritating. He constantly interrupts the questions. When Kristol tries to continue, Summers literally starts shouting. I couldn’t finish them.

    One of the many dangers of the UBI is the seemingly thoughtful rationale laid out by Murray. He covers versions of cause and effect that close off certain big objections and describes an idealized humanity in terms of stimulus and reaction. Dangerous in its tidy seduction because unlike an amoeba and a hot needle, or the other apt comparison, unlike The Game of Life, people don’t move away predictably from the needle, nor do they -turn left on Merchant Street and begin new management job- because the game board spinner landed on that instruction. Unfortunately the Game of Life type assumptions about human behavior is what buttresses the mind of the left. It shocks me to read such a thing from Murray.

    Yes. Harvey Mansfield (and another guest I can’t recall) had some pointed things to say about social scientists in their interviews. Then I listened to Murray immediately after and it was so clear that even well-meaning social scientists have bad prescriptions. They can be excellent at gathering, collating, and presenting data, but should stop there.

  14. Ok…. so what’s the plan to deal with automation putting 80% or so of american worked out of work in the next 20 years or so?

    Sure ubi isn’t a perfect idea but I ain’t of anyone other option other then let those 80% hang

  15. @SFC Ton

    That percentage is way too high, first of all.

    My perspective in the post is that UBI–regardless of what I think of it–will come. The plan, or at least my plan, is to take best advantage of whatever situation we find ourselves. UBI will best be leveraged when it is pooled, i.e., the family that puts its money together will do magnitudes better than those individuals who treat it as their own money with which to do whatever. That’s the short-term answer.

    In the long term, it’s unsustainable. UBI can’t pay for the robots needed to keep automation going. Right now we’re on a wealth bubble and so robots seem cheap. I mean, look at that last statement: “robots seem cheap”. It’s obviously absurd. Robots aren’t cheap. What will happen is that UBI will seduce a lot of people into not working at all, or working minimally. When that happens they’ll finally start to make the decisions to cut cable, fancy cars, Netflix, all those things that today make a lot of money while also making it seem like everything is just going to continue to get better and more pleasurable forever. Eventually the cuts made by those living on UBI will negatively effect the bottom lines of the large corporations. Then we’ll see how expensive robots can be.

    The wealth in America/The West is under-appreciated even while its power is over-estimated.

  16. “Right now we’re on a wealth bubble and so robots seem cheap. I mean, look at that last statement: ‘robots seem cheap’.”

    That’s the key, right there.

    The US federal government alone has $20 Trillion in debt, and $100 Trillion (by some estimates) in unfunded liabilities. That doesn’t count the trillions owed by state, county and city governments, or the trillions owed by individuals. That much wealth doesn’t exist in the whole world. And most of the world is in similar situations.

    We’re “ghetto rich”. We have 22-inch chrome spinners on the Escalade, but we have no hope of ever paying it off. What will we do when the repo man shows up?

    In the First World, labor is expensive and technology is cheap, but we’re “ghetto rich”. In the Third World, technology is expensive and labor is cheap. When the bubble bursts, labor in the First World will suddenly become much cheaper. Hopefully, it won’t become as cheap as it is in the Third World, where life is cheap.

    Either way, that which can’t go on forever, won’t.

  17. Idaho’s department of something or another said 80% of the jobs in their state could be eliminated by automation in the next 20 years

    In trucking, the goal is no human drivers within 20 years, and transportation is a large employment sector in every state

    Robot’s are cheap, and getting cheaper all the time and even though a robot could cost more up front it is cheaper over the long haul and reduces operating cost. Again look at driving. No logbook violations, no one stealing your fuel or other equipment. No drivers failing drug tests. No drivers walking off the job and leaving 40k pounds of fresh chicken on the side of the road. No health insurance, no workers comp claims, no vacation, no sick time. No drivers getting speeding tickets…. your trucks running near on 24/7 possibly 1200 miles between stops vs 600 miles a day maximum for a human Driver. Meaning more loads booked/ more deliveries per week and more money coming in per week vs human drivers etc etc

    They are producing mini robot’s in farming that have been replacing the taco benders invading the usa…. the robots are cheaper then illegals

    Heck modern passenger planes basically fly themselves with no input from the crew unless something comes up

    Either way I invite you to research the topic. There is a large number of very smart people and dudes with money actively working on replacing most workers with some version of robot.

    As for families pooling the money; legit but it’s another perfect world answer when we don’t live in a perfect world and no matter we do to insulate ourselves from the outside world we have to live in the fallout around us. Which is what I see as a major short coming from the Christian part of the alt right/ man o sphere. No offense intended but few answers from y’all come with workable action plans

    Remember when we discussed how i use to live among blacks who went to church twice a week but had all types of quality of life problems which were all resolved by moving into a White UMC area of few church goers vs your live in a community of believers? That sort of thing. The pool the money together as a family sounds great but most families are finically broke ( income vs debt) and broken.

  18. For the record I don’t have a good answer myself
    I sort of hate to be the guy who only brings up problems with no solutions but I reckon lately that’s about all I see on the macro level

  19. @SFC Ton

    Idaho’s department of something or another said 80% of the jobs in their state could be eliminated by automation in the next 20 years

    […]

    Either way I invite you to research the topic. There is a large number of very smart people and dudes with money actively working on replacing most workers with some version of robot.

    Time will tell. Maybe Idaho’s department is right, but I doubt it. Self-driving vehicles have a huge problem in that they must communicate. If they’re on the Internet that means hackers. The obvious case is an automated truck used for terrorism. Another is, say, BLM shutting down a highway by stalling out a truck…or ten. Theft is also an issue.

    Another communication issue is collision detection. An enterprising group of thieves could encroach on trucks to divert them. It doesn’t even have to be armed robbery. The car companies will work out security issues, but they’ll always be chasing the bad guys. Crime is an open-source project.

    Automating assembly and production is one thing. No complex decisions have to be made.

    Think about it this way: We haven’t yet developed a reliable auto-correct for texting. Auto-correct failures can–at worst–get you fired. Self-driving cars can get people killed.

    As for families pooling the money; legit but it’s another perfect world answer when we don’t live in a perfect world and no matter we do to insulate ourselves from the outside world we have to live in the fallout around us.

    I don’t understand your use here of the phrase “perfect world answer”. My answers aren’t perfect world at all, and I don’t push insulation from the world. That’s not even a good idea. Perhaps you mean simplistic? I would grant you that is true, too. They say the devil is in the details and that’s true. I can’t give an action plan for people I don’t know, in situations of which I’m ignorant, in an environment alien to me. I suppose I could talk about my plans, but any attempt to mine them for advice would leave the reader in the same situation I am with everyone else: They don’t know me very well, they don’t know my circumstances, and they don’t my environment. The exception being those who do know those things. Those people are probably in my plans. Anyway, the thing I can offer is general wisdom (if it is in fact wise). It just is wise for a family to make an effort to pool their resources, and to not extract their resources on a whim. How they do that will differ.

    And I do think purposeful communities–even within a city–are viable. Not only are they viable: It is done routinely by Mexicans/South Americans. Ghettos and suburbs transition to barrios in a decade. States and municipalities create ghettos and barrios on a whim by declaring an apartment complex to be section-8 housing and giving out HUD loans to the surrounding houses. Parts of town turn from manufacturing, to tenement, to ghetto…and then a couple gay guys move in and turn an old warehouse into a swank pad. They bring in more of their kind and repeat. Five years the whole neighborhood is “re-gentrified” and the next thing you know you’re watching some hipster on Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives serve $30 plates of BBQ to a bunch of yuppies right off MLK Blvd.

  20. The yuppies down on MLK are thriving on false wealth and fiat dollars. Pretty sure that’s not your plan for you and yours

    I promise you Cane trucks will be automated. The last round of tests i read up on went perfectly. The big money in the industry wants it more then you’ve ever wanted any woman. Some of the biggest nerds around are working everyday to make it happen, backed by very deep pockets. The liabilities you mentioned are considered minor compared to liabilities of truck drivers

    Same applies with the outfits that want to replace your kitchen staff with various versions of automation.

    I am doing some security consulting up in PA. I know disgusting to cross the mason dixion line but times are bad in the transportation sector and I am doing what I can to persevere my posterity’s inheritance Any rate the man who owns that plant is working day and night to find the money to replace his 350 workers with robots.

    How far that extends? I don’t know, but I own two buiness, in two different industries and both industries are pushing to replace all employees within 20 years, same with the one manufacturing plant owner i know and for more or less the same reasons.

    Perhaps 80% is to high a number, but even 30% more unemployed due to automation will topple what’s left of our civil society, and I doubt anyone disagrees automation won’t add 30% more unemployed folks to the rosters in the next 20 years

    I have yet to see the local mexcian community you’d want to call a success and rise your kids in. Hell lots of small towns in NC now I have drug squads and gang tasks forces thanks to the invaders, but they do set up their own long lasting subcultures with second and 3rd generations still speaking basically no English etc etc so they work from a preserving your culture aspect.

    I am a kinist, rule by father’s, and no way around it, that is a collectivist approach to life, such as the family money being pooled together then alloted back out by the head of the extended family. I do this now with The Girls, i also approve or disapprove the various buiness dealings of my older children, with no real push back given they understand and agree with the end game. However, that will only work as a collection of modern, 1st world people with 1st world jobs and lifestyles as long as the society you live in is stable enough to allow the men to have jobs beyond food production and security. For example and an extreme one, the Amish thrive here because the usa is stable enough and they can hide behind a vast network of men who commit violence on their behalf. Drop the Amish off in Iraq or South Africa and they are doomed ( and the usa is becoming a lot more like Iraq and South Africa then any return to a healthy, untied people). On the other hand the Amish are good examples to use because they are a purpose built community, religious in nature and self-sufficient ( or could be). They also have the same problems society at large does as in there are lazy Amish, drug addicted Amish, Amish who steal, women who are unfaithful and rebellious etc, though to a much smaller extent

    As for purposeful Christian communities, we with our limited earthly powers have no idea who is saved etc and who is no, who will be saved in the future etc. Like my experience of living in the semi ghetto. Most of the families did church once a week or more, said the right church things, regular extended family gatherings with prayer before3 etc but quality of life sucks for various reasons. Move to an area of non churches White UMC and above types and quality of life improves drastically

    Soooooo
    #1 you have no real idea who to let into your community of believers because we as humans, all the regular problems of society will be there waiting for you, to what degree? Who knows. How stric will be the entrance criteria? I know I wouldn’t make the cut for any group you established, nor would most of my extended family. How many decent men are going to walk on their extended family? Will youn expell some ones non beliving children,? Would the parents stay if you boot out their daughter who is pregnant out of wedlock? etc etc.

    Mean while you can insulate your family from most of what you want to avoid by moving to a semi affluent White community. No litmus test beyond dollar bills.

    #2 those subculture socities ( & yes we are subculture/ counter culture folks) will only be viable as long as the society around them is viable for a while at the same time do nothing to shore up the crumbling society we live in. Which is vital if you want to give our sub cultures a goodly amount of time to get established themselves, and they will need deep roots, deep enough to become mini city states, most like. I’m thinking 3 generations or so

    I am also thinking about all the people who move out to the country to be prepers, slower pace lifestyle, for the kids etc and don’t make it 5 years. Perhaps that will be a problem setting up your purpose built community, perhaps not but again my guess is churn rate will be high

    Any rate, while ubi has its flaws, everything does, I don’t see anything else that will keep the wheels on long enough for armed, self-sufficient sub communities to form and put down deep enough roots to survive what is coming. and the time line is probably on a sliding scale as well. As in if you have an IQ of 100 you might have 20 years, if you have an iq of 150 you probably have 50 years and most of the folks on the wrong side of the bell curve are pretty much fucked as fucked gets within the next 10

  21. @SFC Ton

    On automation: The 30% projection is much more likely. As far as automated driving: We’ll just have to see how it plays out. Driving is a complex activity and I’m sure there are aspects and exploitable points I haven’t even thought of.

    I have yet to see the local mexcian community you’d want to call a success and rise your kids in.

    You missed my point here. I wasn’t praising barrios (or ghettos, or re-gentrified homo-havens). The point is that concerted efforts to control neighborhoods not only can happen; it has happened and does happen. It just doesn’t happen with straight whites. The vast majority of straight whites have behaved cowardly; at least for the past 40 years.

    I am assuming that we’re talking past each other somewhat. You say you’re a kinist. Ok, so wouldn’t it be the smart move to live among other kinists; at least as much as you can?

    Any rate, while ubi has its flaws, everything does, I don’t see anything else that will keep the wheels on long enough for armed, self-sufficient sub communities to form and put down deep enough roots to survive what is coming.

    There have been other attempts at this. UBI is a doubled-down version of raising minimum wage. That was also supposed to give people incentives. But what actually happened is a stagnation of wages above minimum wage, and it raised the price of everything. There has been no net gain. Also, it discourages young people from contributing to the family because a 17yo making $12 an hour thinks he’s got it made.

  22. LOL as a man who employees drivers, driving cant be very complex or most of my employees wouldnt be able to do it

    Oh I am fine with it Cane but something has to keep the wheels from falling off until such communities get established

    Ubi as I understand (read up on years ago) replaces all other transfer payments and is revenue/ cost natrual. I can’t see it much impacting the various incentives.

    But…. let’s say 30% of workers are replaced in the next 20 years. That’s on top of the 20% unemployment rate we have now. The nation will be a battle zone at that point and communities of like minded people we be called fire bases, unless something fills the gap.

    So want I am saying is…. you will need a ubi or some such to keep things stable long enough to establish any sort of community you are aiming at.

  23. @ SFC Ton

    “Ubi as I understand (read up on years ago) replaces all other transfer payments and is revenue/ cost natrual.”

    When was the last time the US federal government actually replaced one welfare program with another, as opposed to simply adding a welfare program to the ones that already exist?

    When was the last time a US federal welfare program was “revenue/ cost natural” (I believe you meant “neutral”)?

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